Feature · 12 November 2026
Taiwan's monthly sales give an early read on Japan's chip suppliers
A Taipei Ledger test finds that some Japanese chip and component makers have moved with Taiwanese companies, some only for a while, and one not at all.
TSMC said on November 10, 2026 that its October revenue was approximately NT$586.89 billion, up 59.7% from a year earlier. In Taiwan that is routine: listed companies must report the previous month's revenue by the 10th of each month. Japan's suppliers and rivals report by quarter, and weeks later. For anyone who follows Japanese chip and component makers, the gap raises a question: does Taiwan's early figure say anything about what Tokyo will report? 13
Taipei Ledger compared quarterly year-on-year sales growth at Japanese companies with that of their Taiwanese customers and rivals, from the first quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2026. Each pair gets a correlation score, on a scale on which 1 means the two growth rates rose and fell in lockstep and 0 means no relation; a negative score means they tended to move in opposite directions. The head start is real. Advantest reported a median 18 days after Taiwan's full-quarter revenue was public, Shin-Etsu 17 days, Murata 20 days and Tokyo Electron 30 days.
Five pairs held up, in the earlier and the later half of the period alike. Advantest, which makes the machines that test chips, scored 0.80 against TSMC over 23 quarters, and in 15 of 22 quarter-to-quarter changes their growth turned the same way. Shin-Etsu, a maker of silicon wafers, scored 0.77 against its Taiwanese rival GlobalWafers and 0.55 against Taiwan's four foundries, its customers, turning with them in 18 of 22 changes. Among makers of passive components, Murata scored 0.72 against Yageo and Walsin Tech, and Taiyo Yuden 0.72 against Yageo alone.
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Others matched only for a while. TSMC and Tokyo Electron scored 0.51 overall: 0.49 in the earlier half and 0.78 in the later one. SUMCO went the other way, from 0.90 against the four foundries early on to 0.42 later. Lasertec, whose machines inspect the masks used in the most advanced chipmaking, did not track TSMC at all, scoring -0.27.
Chance is the trap. Searching all 1,272 Taiwanese companies with complete data for the closest match to Lasertec turns up Hsing Ta Cement (1109), at 0.70: a cement maker, closer than TSMC. That is why the test only scored pairs chosen in advance for a business reason. A correlation shows that two growth rates moved together, not why. It says nothing about share prices, and it does not promise to last, as Tokyo Electron and SUMCO show.
Nor does it show size. In the third quarter of 2026, TSMC's revenue rose 50.9% and the four foundries' +49.6%, while Advantest's sales rose 81.7%, Tokyo Electron's +48.4% and Shin-Etsu's +15.6%, in yen. TSMC's October figure has already opened the fourth quarter. Its November revenue is due on December 10, 2026, and December's on January 8, 2027. 2
Sources: 1. TSMC October 2026 Revenue Report|Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · 2. Financial Calendar - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · 3. Fundamental Factor Research: Monthly Revenue Information - part1 - TEJ
